London’s FTSE 100 held modest gains around lunchtime on Tuesday but mid-caps wavered as nerves set in ahead of the budget.
The UK budget, the first under this Labour government, is announced on Wednesday. The latest ADP US jobs report is also tomorrow afternoon, about 48 hours before Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls. Election day in the US is next week Tuesday, with decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England two days later.
The FTSE 100 index was up 11.05 points, 0.1%, at 8,296.67.
Some pre-budget nerves were evident in the more domestically-focused FTSE 250, which was down 127.03 points, 0.6%, at 20,708.07.
The AIM All-Share was down 2.26 points, 0.3%, at 718.84. It hit its lowest level since December of last year, and research from accountants UHY Hacker Young showed delistings took the number of companies on the junior market below 700 for the first time since 2001, perhaps hit by uncertainty over the fate of inheritance tax relief for AIM shares in Wednesday’s budget.
The Cboe UK 100 was up 0.1% at 830.86, the Cboe UK 250 fell 0.8% to 18,247.87, and the Cboe Small Companies was flat at 16,724.05.
In European equities on Tuesday, the CAC 40 in Paris and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt each rose 0.3%.
AJ Bell analyst Danni Hewson commented: ‘The FTSE 100 ticked higher on Tuesday, helped by some positive corporate results as investors await earnings updates from the US tech sector and tomorrow’s budget
‘A huge chunk of the S&P 500 are reporting this week including five of the Magnificent Seven, so investors will get an excellent sense of the overall shape of the US third-quarter earnings season over the next few days. Although any market focus on earnings will rapidly be diverted to next week‘s presidential election and Federal Reserve meeting.’
The pound was quoted at $1.2989 early Tuesday afternoon, up from $1.2978 at the London equities close on Monday. The euro stood at $1.0802, down from $1.0815. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JP¥153.55, rising from JP¥153.29.
Taxes, spending and borrowing are set to increase in the UK as Chancellor Rachel Reeves pledges to ‘reset’ the economy and invest in the ‘foundations of future growth’.
Reeves will deliver the budget statement to Parliament around 1230 GMT on Wednesday, after Prime Minister’s Questions. These start at 1200 GMT and usually lasts around 30 minutes.
On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck a defiant tone as he said the UK government will ‘embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality,’ as his chancellor prepares to announce Labour’s first budget in more than a decade, after sweeping to power in July.
Ahead of Wednesday’s fiscal event, Starmer said Labour would take the ‘tough decisions’ required to halt ‘the path to decline’.
XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks commented: ‘The key for sterling will be the OBR growth forecasts. If GDP is revised higher for the long term, and if debt levels under the new public sector net financial liabilities measurement remain stable over the long term, then the pound could recover back above $1.30 versus the USD. However, the long-term future of the FX market will depend on the outcome of the US election, since the dollar is an integral component of the Trump trade.’
In London, HSBC shares rose 3.9%. It reported an increase in third-quarter profit and announced a buyback.
Pretax profit rose 9.9% on-year to $8.48 billion in the third quarter from $7.71 billion, beating consensus of $7.60 billion.
Revenue improved 5.2% to $17.00 billion from $16.16 billion.
HSBC said it intends to kick off a new $3 billion share buyback, after wrapping up one of the same size last week. It plans to complete this new buyback by the time it announces annual results.
HSBC left its annual outlook unchanged.
BP lost 2.4%, however. It announced a new buyback and left its expectation of $14 billion in repurchases for next year unchanged for now, though it announced it plans to review ‘elements of our financial guidance’.
The prospect of that buyback outlook being revised hit the oil major’s shares.
BP said: ‘Our previous guidance for at least $14 billion of share buybacks through 2025 at market conditions around BP’s fourth quarter 2023 results and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating, is currently unchanged, although as part of the update to our medium term plans in February 2025, we intend to review elements of our financial guidance, including our expectations for 2025 share buybacks.’
BP announced a $1.75 billion share buyback for the quarter, as part of its commitment for $3.5 billion for the second half of the year.
The London-based oil major said replacement cost profit for the third quarter that ended September 30 was $1.11 billion, falling 70% from $3.65 billion last year. Underlying RC profit fell 31% to $2.27 billion from $3.29 billion, but topped the company-compiled market consensus for $2.05 billion in the quarter.
Among London-listed mid-caps, St James’s Place fell 2.1%. Bank of America cut the stock to ’neutral’ from ’buy’.
Permanent TSB surged 5.5%. It said lower interest rates helped its share of new mortgage lending to climb sharply in the third quarter.
The Dublin-based lender said its new business mortgage market share in Ireland of 16.3% in the third quarter compares to 13.5% for the six months to June.
This came as customers responded to the ‘significant rate reductions’ announced by the bank, it said, while a ‘strong pipeline’ of new business suggests this will continue into year end.
Total operating income for the first nine months of 2024 was up around 3% year-on-year with net interest income around 1% higher, the bank said.
Brent oil was quoted at $71.78 a barrel early Tuesday afternoon, up from $71.38 at the time of the European equities close on Monday. Gold was quoted at $2,751.55 an ounce, rising from $2,740.80.
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