European stocks ended largely lower on Tuesday, with a weaker oil price weighing on the FTSE 100, while the pound climbed after UK unemployment data.
The FTSE 100 index closed down 43.38 points, or 0.5%, at 8,249.28. The FTSE 250 ended down 22.75 points, or 0.1%, at 20,794.44, while the AIM All-Share closed up 0.09 of a point at 733.86.
The Cboe UK 100 ended down 0.3% at 827.20, the Cboe UK 250 closed up 0.6% at 18,363.77, and the Cboe Small Companies climbed 1.2% at 17,060.89.
In Europe, fortunes were mixed. The CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.1%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt rose 0.1%.
On the FTSE 100, BP fell 4.1% and Shell ebbed 3.0% reflecting a sharp fall in the oil price.
Brent oil was quoted at $73.90 a barrel at the London equities close on Tuesday, down from $77.19 late Monday.
The price fell as the Washington Post reported that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration in the US he’s willing to strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran.
Israel’s assurances have removed a ‘big overhang’ for the oil market in the immediate term, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said.
On Monday, Opec lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecasts for world oil demand, largely as a consequence of concerns about China’s economic outlook.
Opec now assumes that the global average daily oil demand will rise by around 1.9 million barrels - each containing 159 litres - to 104.1 million barrels this year. Just a month ago, the Saudi-led cartel had forecast an increase of more than 2 million barrels.
In addition, the International Energy Agency said global oil markets remain ‘adequately’ supplied thanks to the end of a Libyan oil blockade, weaker demand and relatively modest output losses from hurricanes in the US Gulf Coast.
Benefiting from the lower oil prices, airlines flew higher. British Airways owner, IAG, climbed 4.1%, the top riser in the blue-chip index, and easyJet rose 3.2%.
Also faring well were housebuilders boosted by hopes for lower interest rates and an optimistic outlook from Bellway.
The firm said it expects to build more houses in the new financial year, after a ‘challenging’ year just ended saw profit and sales plunge.
The Newcastle-upon-Tyne housebuilder said pretax profit dropped 62% to £183.7 million in the year ending July from £483.0 million a year prior. Underlying pretax profit fell 58% to £226.1 million from £532.6 million.
Revenue declined 30% to £2.38 billion from £3.41 billion.
Chief Executive Jason Honeyman called it a ‘resilient performance despite the challenging operating conditions during the year.’
Optimistically, Bellway said customer confidence gradually improved throughout the year, driven by a moderation of both mortgage interest rates and consumer price inflation, and an increase in wages.
This leaves it well-placed to deliver a ‘material increase’ in volume output in financial year 2025, it said.
Bellway expects to deliver completions of at least 8,500 homes in the current financial year, up 11% from 7,654 homes in the year just ended. This would still be 22% lower than the 10,945 completions reported in the year to July 2023.
Bellway rose 8.3%, while peers Persimmon advanced 2.9%, Barratt Redrow climbed 2.6% and Taylor Wimpey gained 2.2%.
Also supporting housebuilders UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the £550 million investment into housing will help people get on the housing ladder and ‘rebuild the country’.
The government said that the additional funds would be used to build ‘tens of thousands’ of new homes with a beneficial social or environmental impact.
But concerns over economic growth in China continued to weigh on mining issues with Antofagasta down 4.5%, Glencore down 3.8% and Anglo American down 3.6%.
Elsewhere, NatWest rose 0.6% as Jefferies double-upgraded to ’buy’ from ’underperform’. But Paragon fell 4.0% on the FTSE 250 as the same broker downgraded the lender to ’hold’ from ’buy.
In economic news, the UK jobless rate faded to 4.0% in the three months to August, from 4.1% in the three months to July. The latest figure compared to FXStreet-cited consensus of 4.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics.
In addition, average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.9% in the three months to August, cooling from 5.1% in the three months to July. Annual growth in total earnings, so including bonuses, was 3.8%. Growth in earnings including bonuses eased from 4.0% in three months to July.
Overall, this is a solid report, said Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
‘However, we don’t expect much of a shift in UK rate cut expectations. Although wage growth moderated, the employment picture in the UK has strengthened,’ Brooks noted.
But economists at ING noted a job vacancies suggesting the UK labour market is cooling.
‘Unemployment may be down, but so are vacancies, while the more timely and reliable payroll data points to a jobs market that looks more like it did in 2019. That period saw wage growth of 3.5%, not the 5% we see today. It’ll take time, but that’s the direction of travel for wages over the coming months and if we’re right, it means faster Bank of England cuts.’
All eyes are now consumer inflation numbers on Thursday which are expected to show a drop in the headline rate below the Bank of England’s 2% target in September.
The pound was quoted at $1.3094 at the London equities close on Tuesday, higher compared to $1.3052 at the close on Monday.
The euro stood at $1.0950 at the European equities close on Tuesday, against $1.0910 at the same time on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JP¥149.29, down compared to JP¥149.83 late Monday.
Stocks in New York were lower at the London equities close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 0.4% lower while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%.
Investors gave a mixed reaction to third quarter results from banking giants Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America.
Goldman eased 1.0% despite a jump in third-quarter profit, thanks in part to strong revenue growth in investment banking.
Bank of America climbed 2.0% as it predicted further growth in net interest income in the fourth quarter.
But Citi fell 3.0% after reporting weaker third-quarter profit, as the lender increased provisions for credit losses.
Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance stormed 12% higher after announcing plans to close 1,200 stores over the next three years.
The pharmacy chain expects to close 500 stores in its 2025 financial year, which it expects to be ‘immediately accretive’ to profit and free cash flow.
Back in London, De La Rue surged 20% after agreeing to sell the group’s Authentication division to Crane NXT for a cash consideration representing an enterprise value of £300 million.
Gold was quoted at $2,663.59 an ounce at the London equities close on Tuesday, up against $2,646.29 at the close on Monday.
Wednesday’s UK corporate calendar sees trading statements from miners Antofagasta and Rio Tinto and half-year results from Premier Inn owner, Whitbread.
The economic calendar has the UK consumer price index figures at 0700 BST.
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