VietNam Holding Limited ("VNH" or the "Company")
Monthly Investor Report
A report detailing the activities of the Company for the month of March 2024 has been issued by Dynam Capital Limited, the investment manager of the Company. Electronic copies of the report have been made available to shareholders on the Company's website and a summary of the report is included below.
Manager Commentary: Great Expectations
Vietnam's economy continued its exports-led growth story in March, posting a relatively impressive GDP rise of 5.7% for the first quarter of 2024 (Q1 2024). While this was the highest first quarter expansion in Vietnam since 2020, it happened at a softer pace than expected with all main sectors growing less than they did during the fourth quarter of 2023, when GDP expanded by 6.7%.
AFF (agriculture, forestry, and fishery), IC (industry and construction), and Services (information and communications, financial and professional services) grew by 3.0%, 6.3% and 6.1% year-on-year (YoY) for Q1 2024, respectively. These rates, albeit positive compared to other countries around the world, highlight a divergence between domestic-oriented industries and external-facing manufacturing sectors in Vietnam.
Despite the varied 'tides in March', the country's ongoing recovery remains well on track as trade prospects and foreign direct investment (FDI) continue to advance extensively. First and foremost, FDI remains particularly strong and sustainable, with a formidable 13.4% jump YoY for Q1 2024. Moreover, manufacturing exports expanded by over 14% YoY for the month and 17% YoY for Q1 2024, and we expect it to be the main driving force behind our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 6.5% for Vietnam. The robust export growth in Q1 2024 was largely due to the continued upturn in computers and electronic products, up a whopping 30.3% YoY, with Vietnam further benefiting as a key (and increasingly attractive) hub to produce smartphones too.
Tourism also enjoyed more positive momentum in March, with monthly inbound visitors exceeding pre-pandemic levels thanks to a welcome surge in Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese tourists. According to a recent report by the Vietnam National Tourism Administration, the number of international visitors for the quarter totalled more than 4.6 million, a massive increase of 72% YoY and 3.2% over the same period in 2019 before COVID-19 struck.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Vietnam's economy could potentially reach US$470 bn for 2024, underlining its status as an increasingly important hub in Southeast Asia. As Vietnam enjoyed another record high trade surplus in Q1 2024 - US$8.1 bn - we also must note the government's commitment to enhancing trade agreements and modernising infrastructure.
Vietnam's integrated role in the global supply chain means it is affected by disruptions, including the recent Red Sea shipping conflict and Baltimore bridge crash, and the government showed that it is cognisant of the potential implications as it focuses on improving its port logistics and addressing businesses' changing needs given the accelerating digital and green transformations.
In March, the Vietnamese Prime Minister visited Australia and signed eleven cooperation documents to expand their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership on energy transformation and digital innovation, as well as building on already established collaboration across cybersecurity, economic engagement, and education. The advancement in bilateral ties with Australia is the latest achievement for Vietnam's 'bamboo diplomacy', as reported by Reuters in March. It reflects Vietnam's successful enhancement of relations with major global powers in recent years as the country navigates increasing global tensions and tries to enhance corporate governance and trust.
Indeed, according to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam witnessed a decade-high surge in new business establishments during Q1 2024, with a total of 36,224 new firms registered nationwide during the first three months of the year. When factoring in enterprises resuming operations, the number rose to 59,848. In Q1 2024, Vietnam granted investment certificates to 644 new projects with a total registered capital of US$4.77 bn, marking a notable increase of 23.4% in the number of projects and 57.9% in value YoY.
VNH's NAV rose +4.4% for March due to the outperformance of our holdings in retail, telecoms, and construction. The Fund has continued to outperform the Vietnam All Share Index over 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years.
For more information please contact:
Dynam Capital Limited
Craig Martin Tel: +84 28 3827 7590
info@dynamcapital.com |www.dynamcapital.com
Cavendish Capital Markets Limited
Corporate Broker and Financial Advisor Tel: +44 20 7220 0500
RNS may use your IP address to confirm compliance with the terms and conditions, to analyse how you engage with the information contained in this communication, and to share such analysis on an anonymised basis with others as part of our commercial services. For further information about how RNS and the London Stock Exchange use the personal data you provide us, please see our Privacy Policy.
