VietNam Holding Limited ("VNH" or the "Company")
Monthly Investor Report
A report detailing the activities of the Company for the month of January 2024 has been issued by Dynam Capital Limited, the investment manager of the Company. Electronic copies of the report have been made available to shareholders on the Company's website and a summary of the report is included below.
Manager Commentary: Banking on the Year of the Dragon
As figures for January show, Vietnam's macro-economic landscape provides a promising setting for growth in the Year of the Dragon. To start, the country celebrated a significant trade surplus of USD2.9bn in the first month of 2024, with both exports and imports posting the strongest growth seen over the past two and a half years.
Exports of electronic items led this jump, with high shipments of products in general to all key markets. The momentum in retail sales also continued from the month before, with a solid 8.1% year-on-year (YoY) rise despite the high base given Tet fell in January in 2023. The sustainable growth was driven largely by travel services, which had a stunning rebound, even marginally exceeding pre-Covid levels.
Manufacturing activity in Asia overall improved considerably in January, particularly in Vietnam and South Korea, as stronger demand from major markets offset the slump in China. For the first time in five months, Vietnam's PMI rose over 50.
Increases in Vietnam's foreign direct investment (FDI) and public investment disbursement in January are also worth highlighting. Registered FDI reached USD2.4bn, up 40.2% YoY, the highest level seen since 2020. Much of this rise came from new commitments, indicating a strong start to the year, with more than half coming from the property industry. Furthermore, public investment increased by 12.5% YoY, accounting for 4.4% of the 2024 plan, and we expect this to remain one of the government's primary priorities in 2024.
With liquidity further easing and inflation cooling, favourable effects of Vietnam's monetary policy are likely to become even more effective for its economy in 2024. Plus, in terms of building greater trust, the Vietnamese authorities' anti-corruption effort continued to hit headlines in the few weeks of 2024 with several significant events in both the public and private sectors.
For example, the People's Court in Ho Chi Minh City installed security cameras and additional fire safety equipment to safeguard six tonnes of files related to the Van Thịnh Phat scandal. The municipal Party Committee also said that it will compensate persons who report corruption with up to VND 10m (USD 420) "if their information is accurate and helps the competent agencies verify and handle corruption and negative acts." In addition, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued a regulation declaring that top government personnel should not seek "fame or power".
As Vietnam's stock market rally continued, January proved positive for Vietnam Holding as well, as it once again outperformed with a NAV of +2.4 versus VNAS's 1.8%. January's gains were largely about the banks, which have been benefiting from improved credit over recent months. The Fund is well-positioned for growth in 2024 with a modest price-to-earnings ratio of 10x and strong forecast earnings per share growth of 32%.
It is worth noting that the Fund has the narrowest discount (by far) of the three London-listed Vietnam focused funds, another compelling reason to feel good about the year ahead. At time of writing the discount has narrowed to 3%, and the share price has hit an all-time high. The Chairman of Dynam Capital, Craig Martin, will be in London, Edinburgh and Guernsey between March 18-22, do reach out if you would like to meet up in person.
We wish all investors a safe and prosperous lunar new year, and welcome the Wood Dragon.
For more information please contact:
Dynam Capital Limited
Craig Martin Tel: +84 28 3827 7590
info@dynamcapital.com |www.dynamcapital.com
Cavendish Capital Markets Limited
Corporate Broker and Financial Advisor Tel: +44 20 7220 0500
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