London, UK, 18 April 2024

Edison issues outlook on Jersey Electricity (JEL): Decarbonisation fuelling growth

Jersey Electricity (JEL) is intensifying its focus on energy security and electrification across Jersey by creating opportunities to accelerate growth. It successfully navigated the volatile wholesale power price environment in 2020–23, shielding its customer base from the worst inflationary pressures. However, from 2025, as older, more favourable hedges expire, this protection will diminish. Therefore, we have marginally reduced our earnings forecasts to account for the increased exposure to wholesale prices. Nonetheless, JEL remains well-positioned for continued growth, driven by decarbonisation and electrification over the long term.

Since our last report, we have trimmed our earnings forecasts for FY24 by approximately 12% to better reflect the increased volatility and higher long-term wholesale power prices that JEL faces as its older price hedges begin to expire. We have made some adjustments to longer-term earnings to reflect forward power markets, although these remain volatile. These changes reduced our discounted cash flow (DCF) and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation slightly from 722p to 683p, although this is still well above JEL’s current share price of 440p. The company also offers an attractive 4.7% dividend yield and maintains a strong net cash balance sheet. At an FY24e P/E of 15.2x, JEL’s relative valuation remains modest versus its peers at 15.3x.

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