London, UK, 4 October 2023

Greggs: FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Greggs continues to generate premium sales growth through a combination of volume, including market share gains as distribution increases, and price growth. The strength of underlying trading in Q323 is highlighted by management’s confirmation of consensus FY23 PBT expectations despite the addition of new costs for expanding the company’s delivery offer to a second platform and a slight delay in some store openings from the end of the year into FY24.

Greggs’ share price is broadly flat since the start of 2023, having reached a peak of more than £29 in May 2023, suggesting a modest de-rating following our upgrades to estimates in March and August. The prospective FY23 P/E multiple of 20.7x is above the post-FY13 average of 17.1x, but more in line with average multiples of c 20x and above in more recent years.

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