Large discounts and Black Friday sales accelerated price drops in December, but 2025 will likely see higher prices warned the British Retail Consortium.

The BRC-NielsenIQ shop price index, which covers December 1 to December 7, was down 1.0% from a year before, with price drops accelerating from November’s 0.6% fall. December’s figure compared to a three-month average decline of 0.8%.

Non-food price deflation sped up to 2.4% in December from 1.8% in November. Non-food prices fell at the loftiest pace since April 2021. The three-month average non-food price fall was 2.1%. However, the BRC noted that Black Friday’s later timing this year compared with 2023 meant that prices appear more deflationary than the underlying trend.

Food inflation was steady in December at 1.8%, in line with November and the 3-month average, with the BRC noting it remained at its lowest rate since December 2021.

Fresh food inflation was also unchanged for December at 1.2% and ambient food inflation picked up to 2.8% from 2.7% in November.

NielsenIQ Head of Retailer & Business Insight Mike Watkins said: ‘Shoppers benefited from both lower inflation than last year and bigger discounts as both food and non-food retailers were keen to drive sales after a slow start to the quarter’.

Chief Executive of the BRC Helen Dickinson agreed with this sentiment, noting that ‘Retailers discounted heavily for Black Friday this year as they attempted to make up for weaker sales earlier in the year.’

Dickinson added: ‘As retailers battle the £7 billion of increased costs in 2025 from the budget, including higher employer NI, national living wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up. Modelling by the BRC and retail chief financial officers suggest food prices will rise by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year, while non-food will return firmly to inflation’.

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