Low risk approach spares company the big write-downs experienced by rivals

Our preferred method of technical analysis is to follow trends. Tools such as moving averages can help with identifying a trend so this week we focus on shares that have crossed above their 50-day moving average. Traditionally this can suggest that any medium term weakness is over and more gains are expected.


Inchcape (INCH)

Buy 760p

Target £10.00

Stop Loss 665p

The last few years have been good ones for this major car dealer group. Car dealers during the financial crisis were heavily hit as investors worried that cheap money would dry up. But record-low interest rates have meant that the latest bit of shiny metal on wheels is cheaper than ever. Inchcape shares have increased more than tenfold off the 2009 lows. The share price had been under some pressure since May 2015 but now looks to be past the worst.

(Click on chart to enlarge)

Chartist Inchcape

It started pushing through the moving average in October, and has also broken the downtrend, which for now is seen as just a correction in that multi-year uptrend. If this is the start of yet another push higher, then any weakness should not break the summer lows ahead of 670p. A more aggressive stop loss would be just beyond the 720p low from mid-October. The obvious initial target if the trend is resuming is a return to this year's highs at 900p, with all-time highs at £10.00 the ultimate objective.


Howden Joinery (HWDN)

Buy 495p

Target 650p

Stop Loss 430p

Builders merchant Howden is another one for the 'Harry Hindsight' portfolio - shares that you wish you had a time machine to go back and buy. Since the depths of 2009, its price has risen more than 30-fold. The share price had spent most of the summer in reverse but as ever, even with impressive trends like this one, it doesn't mean that the price goes up every day. There will be corrections along the way and for now that is how the weakness at Howden is viewed.

(Click on chart to enlarge)

Chartist Howden

The drift in price found support a couple of times ahead of 440p; and this was also an important low from March this year. Successful tests of a level like this are very useful when it comes to deciding where the longer term stop loss should go. The strength in recent weeks has managed to push through the downtrend line and back above the 50-day moving average. Both of these make this share an interesting one, suggesting that the next leg higher is starting.



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