Share price weakness at travel agent TUI (TUI) is a buying opportunity ahead of a likely surge in bookings as consumer confidence strengthens.

The £6 billion cap’s shares have slipped 10% to £10.77 over the past 12 months following a sharp increase in geopolitical concerns, particularly in relation to Turkey. Najet El Kassir, analyst at Berenberg, reckons this is adequately reflected in the valuation because Europeans will still go on holiday.

Bookings have been delayed but are expected to rise significantly over the coming months amid growing consumer confidence.

El Kassir says TUI’s hotels and resorts business should continue to benefit from a shift away from North Africa to Spain and the Canary Islands. TUI is expected to add 60 hotels to its current portfolio in the medium term.

Performance in the cruises business, a joint venture with Royal Caribbean, will be boosted by two new ships in 2016 and 2017. Each new ship is forecast to add €25 million of incremental profit per year.

There is also strong corporate interest in TUI’s Hotelbeds business, which could lead to a sale price that is well-received by the market.

Berenberg forecasts net profit of €498 million for the year to 30 September 2016, a year-on-year increase of 31%.

A recovery in bookings at TUI’s interim results on 11 May could allay fears about geopolitical risks. Berenberg’s £13 target price implies 20.7% upside.