Risks remain for supermarkets operator despite earnings upgrade surprise
Almost a year since the Autumn Statement proposed changes to whiplash compensation NAHL (NAH:AIM) chief executive Russell Atkinson tells Shares he is no closer to knowing the eventual outcome.
We think management have done a good job of positioning the personal injury marketing specialist ahead of any changes, reflecting in robust interim results (21 Sep). A 2017 price to earnings ratio of 8.8 and a dividend yield of 7.6% are enticing.
The proposals, as they stand, would see minor whiplash claims heard in small claims courts rather than as ‘general damages’, potentially reducing the expenses law firms can claim.
At present NAHL does not fund no-win no-fee claims itself but concentrates on marketing to generate leads for the law firms it counts as clients. It does this principally through the ‘Underdog’ character which fronts its core National Accident Helpline brand.
The company has modest direct exposure to road traffic accident claims but slimmer margins on personal injury cases are likely to lead to lower profits for the industry as a whole, which would in turn pressure marketing spend and hurt NAHL.
Atkinson says NAHL needs to be ‘ready when it comes’ and says this may include changing commercial structures so payments are deferred and/or NAHL takes on more of the risk but also more of the return associated with a claim. The CEO reassures that any change to the charging model should not affect the cash generative firm’s progressive dividend policy.

At 264p the company looks set for all eventualities.