Market conditions made it tricky for active funds to outperform passive alternatives
As this is my first column as the new chartist for Shares I thought it sensible to outline my approach in a few lines. I’ve been a technical analyst since 1995, working in various roles and most recently in the spreadbetting and contracts for difference industry. I like to think of myself as a practical chartist.
There's a tendency to get too bogged down in the minutiae of a hundred different indicators, looking for the perfect solution to the market puzzle. As any of us who have done this for a while will know, there is no crystal ball when it comes to forecasting markets and picking winners. The best we can do is to try and stack the odds in our favour.
I am a big fan of identifying and following trends. That’s not to say now and again we won’t dip into the more esoteric approaches to market analysis, but it all has to start with trend.
What better place to start than with a big picture view of where we are in markets at the moment. I have chosen the broad-based US S&P 500 index as a place to start. Despite many thinking over recent months, 'this can’t go any higher', the trend persists and last month the S&P moved out to fresh all time highs once again. This is a trend that has been in place since the bank bailouts were finalised.
The S&P marked its bear market bottom in March 2009, ominously reaching 666 before the recovery got underway. More than five years later the trend is still up and the accompanying chart focuses on the past couple of years.
There is trend line support coming in around the 1,860 mark, just above the mid-May lows at 1,850. The 200 day moving average has sat quite happily below the market since the end of 2012 and is currently reading 1,820. In case it needs spelling out: this is a market in a clear uptrend.
For now at least, dips are being treated as buying opportunities and it does not seem too over optimistic to expect this market to set fresh all time highs in the months ahead.
Of course, no trend lasts for ever, but trying to pinpoint the absolute level where a major trend like this will turn is something of a fool’s errand. For me, as long as those May lows at 1,850 stay unbroken by any weakness, the bullish momentum remains very much in place. Considering the index has moved by 50 points in the past months, it doesn’t seem too ridiculous to expect a run out to fresh all-time highs and onto 2,000.