It is only three weeks since we looked at the fate of the European single currency but as Greece continues to hog the financial - and often mainstream - headlines it is worthy of an update.

Last weekend was the absolute final deadline for Greece to agree the terms of its latest bailouts. This was completely different to all the other final deadlines that have gone before. Or not. As the weekend drew to a close still no agreement was reached and talks carried on throughout the night.

As is fitting for the connected modern world, the first hint of a deal came before 8am in the form of a single word tweet from the Belgian prime minister: ‘Agreement’. Further details gradually emerged and it began to look like, finally, after all the bluster, bluff and that referendum, that the bare bones of a deal were in place. Things move quickly when it comes to a financial crisis and this may have all changed by the time you read this - or get to the end of this paragraph. But what has not changed is that the euro, when looking at the euro/US collar benchmark, has remained reasonably stoic as the crisis has unfolded.

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There are a few ways of interpreting this. If the Greek situation is resolved and it sticks with the euro, then a crisis has been averted and the argument can still be made that the euro makes sense for all these very different economies. So Spain, Portugal and Italy: don’t go getting any funny ideas. If Greece ended up exiting and going back to the drachma - well, a weak economy has dropped out of the eurozone, improving its overall strength. And yet another explanation is that the pessimism towards the euro over the past 12 months had simply gone too far.

Whatever your view, it does still feel as the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is more up than down. The last time the currency pair set any sort of meaningful low was back in the middle of March when it hit 1.0460. Progress over the past couple of months has been broadly flat - but there does still appear to be a ‘euro buyer’ attitude whenever the pair drifts below 1.1000.

As is occasionally mentioned in this column, currencies are like oil tankers rather than speed boats. They do change direction but this does not usually happen overnight. The price action on the chart since that March low could well be signifying this, but there still does not appear to be any urgency just yet if you are not quite convinced. The market seems happy to offload EUR/USD in the 1.1400/1.1600 zone and it is only until, and if, this area is breached upwards that we could see more of a mad scramble to jump on board a perceived new trend.

(Click on chart to enlarge)

Despite what some would see as the failure of some politicians in recent months to agree a deal and act in a statesmanlike manner, EUR/USD has remained relatively calm in the eye of the storm. And with it trading a good 20% lower than where it was in May 2014, it is not too much of a stretch to feel the bearish argument has played out.

Confirmation requires a break-out from the highs seen in recent months but the fact that the pair has not plunged with each missed Greek deadline does tend to favour an argument for euro strength in the medium to long term.