Natural resource-themed products are centre stage but watch out for volatile returns
It’s too early to accurately assess the full impact on insurers of the storms that engulfed parts of northern Britain over Christmas, but analysts believe the cost will be manageable.
Insurers are likely to push up premium prices to cover any losses from flood-related claims. The key risk for investors is the level of claims insurers have to pay out before higher premiums benefit group earnings.
Accountancy giant PwC estimates that insurers will have to cough up between £700 million and £1 billion to pay for the storm damage, while rival firm KPMG believes the cost could be even higher at up to £1.5 billion.
Brokers point to RSA (RSA) and Direct Line (DLG) being hardest hit.
Berenberg notes RSA is expected to take a £75 million loss from the storms, which is only a third of its annual weather loss budget but 31% of the firm’s forecast operating profit for 2015. Direct Line’s losses are expected to be well below its estimated £150 million maximum exposure.
Also expected to receive a rise in claims is Aviva (AV.), but UK property is a small part of its business so only a modest hit is expected relative to group earnings.
Those with reinsurance arrangements to share the burden would in theory be able to get financial assistance but that could push up their own reinsurance costs in the future.

Insurers should be able to manage the impact of the storms but we would avoid rushing to buy on price weakness until the extent of the losses are known.