Geo-location business risks destroying shareholder value
JD Wetherspoon (JDW) 724.4p
Profit to date: 20.3%
We highlighted pubs group JD Wetherspoon (JDW) in November 2024 as an ‘absolute steal’ based on what we believed were overly-conservative EPS (earnings per share) estimates, putting the business on a forward PE (price to earnings) multiple of just over 10 times.
At the time the company had raised its earnings guidance and reinstated the dividend due to ‘robust’ like-for-like trading.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE WE SAID TO BUY?
Trading has remained resilient through the end of 2024 and into 2025 with the value-oriented chain revealing an acceleration in like-for-like sales growth for the third quarter to 27 April.
Total sales increased 5% despite a slight drag from pub disposals while like-for-like sales growth nudged up to 5.1% for the year-to-date.
Having opened two pubs and sold seven, the company said it intends to open four or five additional pubs in the current financial year to the end of July and 10 the following financial year.
Chairman Tim Martin attributed the robust trading to the sunny weather but insisted the full-year outcome will be ‘reasonable’ despite headwinds from reported wage and tax increases of around £1.2 million per week.
Analysts at Jefferies believe Wetherspoon can mitigate the cost increase though increased pricing and is relatively well-positioned compared with other operators to absorb wage increases, given its value for money credentials.
Martin would not be committed on specific pricing at Wetherspoon, other than to confirm the pubs would remain ‘competitive.’
WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS DO NOW?
The rally in the shares has taken them to their highest level since October 2024, while analysts have slightly downgraded consensus 2026 EPS to 53p from 55p in November.
This means the forward PE ratio has moved up from 10.2 times to 13 times at the current price, but we see this as a positive signal that investors are willing to bet on Wetherspoon’s strong competitive positioning and resilient trading in the face of a challenging market backdrop.
