Further political upheaval and hawkish Fed point to dollar gains

Shares in pub and restaurant operator Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) are down 38% over the past 12 months but we’d urge against buying into the stock as a turnaround looks increasingly unlikely.

We took a bullish view on the £1.1 billion cap in November 2015 when its new chief executive Phil Urban announced plans to revive the business, including expanding successful smaller brands like steakhouse Miller & Carter.

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS - Comparison Line Chart (Rebased to first)

However there are no proposals to sell or resuscitate Harvester and Toby Carvery - two of its largest brands - despite the fact their low quality, outdated feel is driving customers to competitors.

Restaurant Group’s (RTN) experience tells us that if a core brand is flagging - in its case Frankie & Benny’s - popular smaller brands (i.e. Joe’s Kitchen) can’t offset this.

Urban made almost no progress in improving like-for-like sales in the first quarter and analysts aren’t hopeful for the second quarter, which means interim results on 19 May are likely to disappoint.

One glimmer of hope is that its margins are expected to rise as a result of minor price increases and the closing of Orchid’s head office.

Avoid at 271.6p; there are much better quality stocks in the pubs sector.

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