The roll-call of bullish 2015 forecasts for the US economy and its benchmark S&P 500 index did not get off to a good start.

Annualised fourth quarter GDP growth came in slightly below expectations at 2.6% versus the 3.3% expected by economists. The S&P 500 swooned in sympathy, taking losses for the month to 3.1%.

The next US economic health check takes place tomorrow (Feb 6) as the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its non-farm payrolls figure at 8.30am Eastern Time. Economists at asset manager Investec estimate 220,000 jobs were added in the US in January and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.5%.

A disappointing print is not likely to be received well by the market. Fourth quarter data showed consumer spending is now the main driver of growth in the economy, so any let-up in earnings growth or employment would raise concerns over the durability of the recovery.

A widening trade deficit, driven by a strong dollar, trimmed around 1% off GDP growth and this only looks likely to worsen as the dollar continued to strengthen through January. Earnings of S&P companies with global operations were also hit hard by dollar strength.

Proctor & Gamble (PG:NYSE), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) bore the brunt of the forex hit. A Bloomberg survey of analysts indicates aggregate earnings per share across the S&P500 are now forecast to contract 2.1% in the first quarter and 1.1% in the second.

A recent rally at struggling retailer JC Penney (JCP:NYSE), trading at $7.27, may provide a selling opportunity if consumer confidence starts to wilt.